Katie Roche's Blog

Will E. Jean Carroll's Case Prove that Trump is a Rapist?

Last week, the Department of Justice announced it would be defending Trump against defamation claims from E. Jean Carroll. This means US taxpayers will not only cover Trump’s legal fees: if he loses the case, they’ll be paying the compensation too. There is no good reason for the Department of Justice to be involved. The alleged incident took place before Trump was president. It regards something that Trump personally is alleged to have done, not the US government. Therefore, Trump should pay the legal fees and any compensation.

Carroll, a journalist who is most notable for writing Elle magazine’s Ask Jean column, alleges she was raped by Trump in the mid-1990s. She isn’t sure of the exact year, but she says between 1995 and 1996. She wrote about the allegations in her book entitled What do We Need Men For? (which she might have done to force the issue). She is not suing Trump for the rape, but for defamation because he denied the rape happened. However, she never filed any criminal charges against Trump. She can’t do this now because the statute of limitations has passed. But she will need to prove she was raped for the case to succeed. Carroll intends to do this with DNA evidence. She has the dress which she wore on the occasion. She claims she has never worn it since, or washed it. An analysis of the dress has found that it has at least three other people’s DNA on it, including some belonging to a male. Carroll’s legal team has demanded a DNA sample from Trump. Thus far, he has refused to provide one. But he may be forced to give one soon.

A lot of people are hoping Trump will be found to have raped Carroll. But sadly, from a legal standpoint, Carroll’s case against Trump is weak. It doesn’t mean she is lying. But it does mean she probably wouldn’t have enough evidence or a strong enough argument to prove that Trump had raped her. First, the DNA itself is old and might have degraded to a point where it can no longer be identified. If that has happened, then this weakens her case somewhat. DNA can last many years, but it needs to be carefully stored. Sealing the material in glass, storing it in liquid nitrogen or freezing the sample are the main techniques used for preserving DNA. The dress was probably not kept in such conditions.

Even if Trump’s DNA is found on the dress, all it proves is he had some kind of physical contact. If Trump had brushed passed her, or put his hand on her arm, it would have his DNA on it. Unlike the dress in the Bill Clinton case, this contact could have been from anywhere. In Bill Clinton’s case, there was a seamen stain on the dress. DNA proved that it was Clinton’s seamen. In this case, there is no stain or mention of seamen on the dress. The sample is taken from her sleeve. Another confounding factor is that the dress has two other people’s DNA on it aside from the unidentified male and Carroll herself. Unfortunately, this supports the case that the DNA may have come from casual contact. She is not saying the other two people raped her. So how did their DNA get on the dress? Nevertheless, none of these things mean Trump is innocent. But would it be possible to plant seeds of doubt in the mind of a jury with these points? Because that’s all Trump has to do to win the case.

As well, the way she has acted will make it easy to convince a jury she is lying. To win the case, all Trump’s legal team must do is discredit her enough to make a jury doubt her. And there are many ways they could do that. First, she might be accused of trying to profit from the allegations. As she has written a book about the alleged incident, and is suing Trump, the legal team could argue she is motivated by money. This is supported by the fact that no criminal investigation took place. Carroll says that a criminal investigation would be “disrespectful to the women down on the border who are being raped around the clock down there without any protection”. It’s difficult to understand this point. Wouldn’t these women like to see Trump brought to justice?

That no case has been brought before is also an issue. Why did Carroll wait over 20 years after the alleged incident occurred to seek recompense? Why didn’t she say anything at the time? The Trump team could say she has invented the incident to discredit Trump before his re-election. Furthermore, this might also play into the money argument: writing a book alleging you’ve been raped by the president brings far more interest and far more sales than a book saying you were raped by a property tycoon.

Another potential vulnerability in the case is that Carroll alleges she had been sexually assaulted by eight men during her life. Given that most women are never assaulted, Carroll is either extremely unlucky or she is stretching the truth. The former is certainly possible, but Trump’s legal team will argue for the latter.

Finally, she has said some controversial things a about rape. In an interview for CNN with Anderson Cooper, she said that “most people think rape is sexy”. Right-wing news outlets have taken this quote out of context, and implied that she meant she enjoyed being raped. She wasn’t saying that she thought rape is sexy. She was making the point that people don’t always see rape as the violent crime that it is. But that interpretation of the quote will get missed by those defending Trump.

Of course, Carroll’s conduct does not mean she is lying. In reality, there are few “perfect” rape victims who do everything in the way a jury might expect. In addition, there are good reasons for why Carroll has acted as she has. Because rape is difficult to prove, many women don’t go to the police. Many women wonder if they were at fault, and so they don’t feel confident enough to bring a case. They might not be certain it was rape until they have reflected on what happened. Also, reporting a rape involves reliving painful moments and having your personal life closely scrutinized. Given that very few rapes reported to the police lead to a criminal conviction, few women feel it’s worth bothering with going through the emotional pain of reporting it.

As well, she might have only felt comfortable to reveal what happened now that more women are coming forward about their experiences of sexual assault. People feel safer to come out and accuse someone when others are doing it. This is why the #metoo movement has led to so many men being accused of sexual assault. Women think “it’s not just me”. And they have moral support from other victims. As well, they feel more likely to be believed. Which is why Carroll might have chosen this time to bring the case. In addition, the circumstances have changed. Carroll might have been prepared to leave Donald Trump the mogul to be unpunished. But she must be horrified at the prospect of her attacker being the president. Who wouldn’t be? That creep is never off the television! In the most responsible job in the world! It must be sickening. It’s perfectly understandable that she would want everyone to know what kind of a man the president is.

But don’t pin your hopes on Trump being found culpable for rape (civil cases don’t find people guilty or not guilty). Rape is always difficult to prove. Unfortunately, this case is no exception. I have every sympathy with all the women who have accused Trump of rape or sexual assault. I believe at the allegations are true. It’s outrageous that taxpayers are paying for Trump’s personal legal issue. And it’s even more outrageous that a rapist is the president of the most powerful country on earth.

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